信度函数在作战效能分析中的运用

Application of Belief Function for Combat Effectiveness Analysis

针对某些作战效能指标由于与人的行为等因素关系密切而难以量化,运用信度函数探索不确定评价问题。通过建立信度函数模型把指标评价建模为信度函数,并应用登普斯特(Dempster)规则转化为mass函数合成为上层指标进行综合评价。经过实例分析,信度函数模型尤其对战时在考虑指挥员的指挥艺术及士兵士气等非确定性因素的情况下,对作战效能的评估是十分有效的,从而为决策者的作战决策提供一定辅助作用。

Because some combat effectiveness indexes which are related to human behavior are difficult to be quantified with belief function to explore indefinite problems. This paper transfers index evaluation into belief function by setting up belief function, and then make them transfer mass function to form higher-level index to comprehensive evaluation based on Dempster Rule. At last, an introducing example shows that the belief function model is very valuable for dealing with random and indefinite evaluation problems, especially when considering commander＇s commanding art and soldier＇s courage, and it provide a assistance function for the decider to make right operational decision.