摘要
在自由贸易区(简称FTA)内,贸易利益如何在成员国间分配取决于各成员国的比较优势。在竞争型的南南FTA中,具有极端比较优势的国家利益将受损,具有中等比较优势国家将获益。CAFTA(中国—东盟自由贸易区)的建立,对中国来说将主要带来贸易转移,进一步导致优势产业在东盟的集聚,强化中国在高新技术领域与东盟的贸易逆差,从而使中国在国际生产链条的末端长期驻足,并导致利益损失。政府必须对此密切关注并采取相应的政策和战略。
How are the benefits and costs of a FTA divided between member countries？ Outcomes depend on the comparative advantage of member countries. In South-South FTA, Country with a comparative advantage between that of their partners and the rest of the world do better than country with an ＂extreme＂ comparative advantage. From the Chinese trade structure, the trend is more and more trade deficit with ASEAN countries, especially in the high-new technology trade area. Surprisingly ASEAN has already been the top import community and the first deficit community for more than 2 years, we must pay more attention to the continuing development. With the establishment of the CAFTA, there will be mainly trade diversion brought to China. Enforcing advantage industries concentrating on ASEAN will put the Chinese industries in a very disadvantage place in the international division for long terms and produce losses to China. Our government must pay close attention to it and take corresponding policies and strategies.
