辽河三角洲土地利用时空变化及预测研究

Study on Spatio-temporal Change and Forecast of Land Use in Liaohe River Delta

文以盘锦市作为辽河三角洲的研究核心,通过对研究区不同时期的遥感影像数据的处理,获取地物信息图谱,提取所需信息数据进行区域土地利用时空变化及预测研究:首先进行土地利用动态分析,分析了辽河三角洲1976—2000年土地利用类型结构时间上的变化情况;之后采用转移矩阵法,利用20世纪70年代以来3期遥感资料,建立辽河三角洲70年代中后期至1988年和1988年至2000年两个间隔12年的土地利用类型转移矩阵,分析三角洲各土地利用类型的时空演变过程;最后利用马尔科夫链模型对三角洲的土地利用类型变化趋势进行预测,为区域土地的可持续利用提供理论依据。

This paper takes Panjin as the research core of Liaohe river delta through processing the remote sensing data of Landsat satellite in different time of research area, getting the Geo-information TUPU and withdrawing the information data on the regional spatio-temporal change and forecast of land use. Firstly, the dynamic analysis of land use was used to analyse the time change situation of land use type structure of Liaohe River delta form 1976 to 2000. Secondly, 3 issues of remote sensing materials after 70＇s were used to establish two transfer matrix of classified land-use of Liaohe River delta that is separated 12 years from the later 70＇s to 1988 and from 1988 to 2000. Then the spatio-temporal change of Liaohe River delta was analysed. Eventually, the trend of classified land-use with Markov chain model was predicted. The study ultimately provides the academic base for sustainable use of land in this region.