基于剩余交通需求的城市轨道交通需求预测方法

Forecast about Urban Rail Transit Demand on Remainder of Traffic Demand

为使城市轨道交通资源被充分利用,以提高城市轨道交通的运营效益,提出了城市轨道交通规划中应采用基于剩余交通需求的城市轨道交通需求预测方法:根据常规交通方式的预测和道路的设计通行能力,求出以客流量表示的各常规交通路段的交通供给;然后根据“四阶段预测法”的交通量分配步骤中的多路径分配法,将城市总交通需求分配到城市常规交通路网上,得到城市总交通需求在各常规交通路段上的分配;再求出交通需求与交通供给之差,即得剩余交通需求;最后根据剩余交通需求进行轨道交通规划。

According to domestic and overseas complexion of urban railway transport utilization, how to make full use of urban railway transport resource so as to imrove its business benefit is an important problem for urban traffic planning. This article discusses an operative method and model： firstly, based on the forecast of general traffic mode and the designed transit capability of the road, the general traffic supply on every section can be extracted;secondly, the total urban traffic demand is distributed on all traffic roads by adopting the distributing method in ＂four steps forecast method＂; thirdly, the difference of traffic supply and traffic demand is calculated, which is called the remainder of traffic demand. Finally, this paper forecasts the urban railway transport demand and rectifies the result according to the remainder of traffic demand.