实证经济学的逻辑结构

The Logical Structure of Positive Economics

本文试图探讨实证经济学的逻辑结构——假设,推理和结论。认为实证经济学应坚持共同的核心假设,而假设在一定程度总是非现实的。本文第一部分引入由波普尔提出的环境逻辑,第二部分探讨假设的非现实性,第三部分进一步讨论假设的类型,第四部分分析有效的推理和对结论的批评性检验,第五部分以生命周期假说为例分析经济学家是如何运用环境逻辑的,最后一个部分展望经济学理论两个可能的改进方向。

This paper attempts to discuss the logical structure of positive economics, which consists of assumption, deduction and conclusion. The author argues that all the positive economic models should stick to the common core assumption, which is always unrealistic to some degree. The paper involves six parts. First, the paper introduces the situational logic put forward by Popper. The second part deals with the unreality and types of the assumption, followed by the analysis of effective deduction and the critical tests of the conclusion. Finally it gives a perspective on two potential directions of the improvement of economic theories.