山东省水土资源承载力空间结构研究

Spatial Structure of Water and Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province

山东省人均耕地资源和人均水资源量相对较低,近年来人口增加和社会经济发展进一步加剧了水土资源的供需矛盾,水土资源成为社会经济可持续发展的制约因素。从空间角度对山东省水土资源现状和未来承载力进行评价和预测,为水土资源开发利用、社会经济发展以及人口合理布局等宏观决策提供依据。论文分为4部分。一、二部分通过建立水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评判方法和多目标规划模型分别对17市地水资源承载现状及未来承载力进行评价和预测;第三部分,在预测光温水土生产潜力和粮食播种面积的基础上,估算各市地耕地人口承载力;文章最后根据水土资源承载力的空间组合,将全省划分为五种类型区,他们具有相对集中连片的特征,并且和自然地理界限、经济发展区划等具有高度的一致性,每一类型区应采取不同的发展对策和措施。

Natural resources including water and land have greatly limited the economic and social development in Shandong province in recent years. It is important to probe the spatial structure of carrying capacity of water and land resources, which can be applied to macro-level decision making on how to exploit the resources reasonably. This paper aims at analyzing of spatial structure of resources carrying capacity in Shandong province. Firstly, the water carrying capacity of 17 municipalities are evaluated and forecasted through using general-fuzzy appraisal approach and multi-objective planning model. The result indicates that water carrying capacity in 2010 and 2020 Shandong hill region and Southwest Shandong plain will extends from southwest to northeast and East be in surplus of water resources, and Middle Shandong hill region and North Shandong plain are in deficiency of water resources in the future. Secondly, land carrying capacity of 17 municipalities on the basis of crop potential and planting areas are estimated. The result reveals that four out of 17 municipalities would be in surplus and another four municipalities without pressure and nine municipalities under higher pressure in 2010 and 2020. Lastly, the spatial characteristics of water and land carrying capacity are summarized. The water and land carrying capacity are not well matched and have notable spatial diversity in near future. According to the degree of water abundance favorable to industry development and land abundance degree favoring population settlement, five types of region with different carry capacity of resources are classified into. It is proposed that the region without water pressure should be the focus area of population settlement and industry development. The region with water surplus and higher land pressure should accelerate industry development and limit population growth. The region with higher water pressure and without land pressure should accelerate urbanization process and develop economized water industry. The region without water pressure and with higher land pressure should develop industry moderately and control population growth rigorously. The region with both higher water and land pressure should develop water-saving industry and control population growth rigorously.