科尔沁地区牧业生产及其可持续发展定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Sustainable Stockbreeding Production in Kerqin

建立包括自然要素、经济要素和技术要素作为投入的全要素牧业投入产出模型,并将之运用到科尔沁地区,以奈曼旗为例,对1949年至1980年集体所有制时期以及1980年至2003年包干到户时期的牧业生产进行了分析。研究表明,在1949年至1980年期间,牧业生产主要受到年降水量、年平均温度、牧业劳动力和6月末牲畜数量4项投入要素的影响,其中温度因子对牧业生产的驱动作用大过劳动力的作用。1980年至2003年期间,牧业生产主要受到牧业劳动力和牲畜数量投入的影响,该时期各投入要素的生产率得到显著提高,尤其是劳动力投入的作用得到加强,从而使牧业呈现出较强的增长趋势。究其原因,牲畜比例的调整与出栏率的提高是提高各投入要素的生产率的重要手段。牲畜比例的调整方向,主要是从牧养型的牲畜向圈养型的牲畜调整。从总体上看,由于劳动力与牲畜的持续扩大投入受到限制,并且牧业生产过程中技术投入的作用不明显,因此,现有牧业生产方式和结构必须进一步调整,才能满足科尔沁地区牧业可持续发展的需求。

Based on the concept of Total Factor Production, this paper constructs a model for the stockbreeding production in Kerqin, which takes natural resources, economic factors and technical measurements as model input. In details, eleven variables are chosen, including precipitation, average temperature, labor force, amount of livestock and so on. This paper takes Naiman County as study area. According to linear regression, models of two different phases are built. It suggests that, in the first phase from 1949 to 1980, precipitation, average temperature, labor force and amount of livestock are the pivotal factors to stockbreeding but the coefficients of such variables are all under 1.0. As shown in the model, average temperature and amount of livestock are more contributive than labor force, That is to say, the stockbreeding production depends on the natural condition and the productivity of economic factors is low. So we conclude that the stockbreeding production in the first phase is extensive and less effective. In the second phase from 1980 to 2003, labor force and the population of livestock are the pivotal factors to stockbreeding output and the coefficients of such variables are much greater than 1.0. That is to say, the productivity of economic factors is greatly strengthened. As shown in model, labor force is more contributive to stockbreeding production than livestock input, so we conclude that the stockbreeding production is much more improved. Comparing to the first phase, the productivity of labor force and livestock input are much more increased, because the component of livestock species is changed and the proportion of animals sold is increased. In the second phase, the proportion of herbivorous animals decreased and that of animals fed, like fork, increased. Although the productivity of economic factors is greatly improved, there are still difficulties to realize the sustainable development. Livestock population is limited by precipitation in recent years and the increase of population brings pressure on livestock production. Because the efficiency of techniques is not obviously high and the input of labor force and livestock have been limited, the component of livestock species should be improved unceasingly for the sake of sustainable development in Kerqin.