论概率解释的多元论观点——评吉利斯的概率哲学理论

On pluralist view of interpretation of probability

按照概率解释的多元论观点,概率演算具有许多不同的解释,并且每一种解释都是在特定的领域或情况下有效。拉姆齐、卡尔纳普和吉利斯等人就是持这一观点。吉利斯关于概率的观点即认为目前存在着三种可行的概率解释:主观主义解释、主体交互解释和性向解释。这些不同的概率解释都有自己的适用范围,其中认识论解释适用于社会科学,客观解释适用于自然科学。

According to the pluralist view of interpretation of probability,represented by Ramsey,Carnap and D.Gillies,the mathematical calculus has a number of different interpretations and each of them is valid in a particular area or context.This essay mainly discusses D.Gillies' view of probability,that is,there are three currently viable interpretations of probability: the subjective,the inter-subjective and the propensity.Different interpretation has its own applicable scope,among which the epistemological interpretation is appropriate for social sciences while the objective interpretation is appropriate for natural sciences.