一定范围内奥肯定律失效原因的初探

Exploring the Reasons of the Limitation of Okun's Law in some Fields

本文通过对中美德日英意等六国在1983年以来失业率与GDP增长率之间关系的实证分析,利用SPSS11.0软件得出相应Pearson相关系数,推断奥肯定律在一定范围内出现了失效现象。并运用技术进步,人力资本和资本深化等使要素生产率提高的因素,结合美国实际为例进行分析,找出其失效的主要原因,最后根据中国的特殊国情,对奥肯定律在中国出现偏差现象的原因作了进一步的探讨。

On the basis of empirical analysis of the relationships between the unemployment rate and the real GDP growth rate in China, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, and Italy since 1983, this paper infers that there are limitations of Okun＇s Law in some fields, by figuring out each Pearson Correlation hy the SPSS 11.0 software. Taking US as a example, the paper seeks the deep reasons of the limitations through technological innovation, human capital and centralization of capital, and so on, which improves the productivity; then, according to the special situation of china, the reason of limitation of Okun＇s Law in China is finally analyzed.