中国城市化对流通业发展影响的实证研究

The Effect of Urbanization on the Development of Goods Distribution Industry: An Empirical Study

从历史演进和逻辑分析相结合的角度看,城市的经济职能在于其作为集中的交换场所促进了交易频率的提高和流通业的不断发展。因此,旨在检验城市化与流通业发展关系的实证研究无疑是锦上添花。中国经济的快速增长使得多数宏观经济变量表现出非平稳特征,而协整以及建立在协整关系基础上的误差修正模型为研究非平稳变量之间的定量关系奠定了理论基础。本文利用1960～2003年中国的城市化率和流通业发展的年度数据,通过自回归分布滞后模型的方法建立了一个对应的误差修正模型,以此作为定量分析城市化对流通业发展影响的基础。研究表明,从长期看,城市化水平每增长1个百分点促使流通业增长2．436个百分点。

It can be concluded that the city's economic function as a concentrated place for exchange is to promote the enhancement of transaction efficiency and the continuous development of distribution industry from the perspective of history process and logic analysis. The high growth of China's economy implies that many economic variables are non-stationary, but the co-integration method and the ECM model can be used to study the relationship among non-stationary variables. This paper uses the ADL method to construct a related ECM with the 1960-2003 year data of China. The results indicate that one point percentage point of growth in urbanization promotes 2.436 percentage points growth of distribution industry in the long run.