中国天山山区近40a来的年气候变化

Annual Climate Change in the Tianshan Mountainous since Recent 40 Years

依据中国天山山区8站1959-2000年的气温降水资料,建立天山山区年平均气温、年降水量序列,利用距平分析、滑动平均、最大熵谱、经验正交、线性回归等方法,分析天山山区近40 a来气候变化的基本特征,结果表明:①天山山区年平均气温存在4暖3冷的冷暖变化阶段,最冷年与最暖年分别是1984年和1998年,其变化具有3 a和6 a的显著周期;天山山区年降水量具有3多3少的干湿变化阶段,降水最多年与最少年分别是1998年和1997年,年降水量变化具有2,4,9 a的显著周期。②天山山区年平均气温最主要的空间分布特征是大西沟、巴音布鲁克年平均气温与其余6站呈反向变化,其次是除新源外,其余7站年平均气温呈同向变化;天山山区年降水量的最主要空间分布特征是8站降水的同向变化,其次为昭苏、新源、大西沟、巴音布鲁克、巴伦台年降水与小渠子、天池呈反向变化。③20世纪60-80年代,天山山区年平均气温与30 a平均值相同,90年代升温达到0.6℃;从60-90年代天山山区年降水表现为持续增多;90年代是4个年代中气温最高、降水最多的年代。④近42 a来,天山山区年平均气温存在着明显的线性升温趋势。

In this paper, the series of annual temperature and precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains are developed using the temperature and precipitation data from 8 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountainous in Xinjiang during the period of 1959 - 2000. The basic features of climate change in the Tianshan Mountainous since recent 40 years are analyzed using the methods of anomaly analysis, moving average, maximum entropy spectrum, empirical orthogonal function and linear regression. The main results are as follows： （1） Annual temperature change in the Tianshan Mountainous has experienced 4 warm and 3 cold stages, the coldest year and the hottest year occurred in 1984 and 1998 respectively, and the 3-year and 6-year change periods were significant; the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountainous was increased in 3 periods but decreased in other 3 periods, and the years with the most and the least precipitation occurred in 1998 and 1997 respectively, and the 2-year, 4-year and 9-year change periods were significant. （2） Spatially, the change of annual temperature at Daxigou and Bayanbuluk meteorological stations is reverse to that at other 6 stations in Tianshan Mountainous, and the annual temperature change at 7 meteorological stations is synchronous except that at Xinyuan Meteorological Station; the change of annual precipitation at 8 meteorological stations in Tianshan Mountainous is synchronous, and the change of annual precipitation at Zhaosu, Xinyuan, Daxigou, Bayanbuluk and Baluntai meteorological stations is reverse to that at Xiaoquzi and Tianchi Meteorological stations （3） From the 1960s to 1980s, the annual temperature and its 30-year average in the Tianshan Mountains were the same, the annual temperature was increased by 0. 6 ℃ in the 1990s; the annual temperature was continuously increased during the period from 1960 to 1990, and the 1990s was a decade with the most precipitation and the highest temperature since recent 40 years; （4） The annual temperature in the Tianshan Mountains has been increased in a linear way since recent 40 years.