全球气温上升因素研究——能源利用中热能散失对气温的影响

Study on global temperature rising factor --impact of heat dissipation from energy consumption

为了分析能源不完全利用产生的热能散失对近三十年来全球气温升高的影响,首先对近三十年来的全球气温、主要温室气体浓度和主要能源利用中的热能散失量等数据进行了收集和整理;结合各温室气体对温室效应的相对贡献值引入了温室效应值这一参数,之后通过二元线性回归法来分析温室效应和能耗散失双因素对气温升高的权重影响.借助于黑体辐射定律等相关物理模型,估算出分别由此二因素引起的全球气温升高值,并对两者贡献值进行了量化比较,结果表明,虽然温室效应是气温升高的主要原因,但热能散失也对这一气候变化具有一定程度的影响.

The impact of heat emitted in the incomplete energy consumption on the global temperature rising was analyzed. It collected the data of the global temperatures, the concentration of major greenhouse gases, and the heat dissipation from primary energy consumption in the latest thirty years. And then another parameter-greenhouse effect value was introduced combined with the relative contribution value of each greenhouse gas. While the global temperature was set as the dependent variable, and the greenhouse effect and heat dissipation as the independent ones, a binary linear regressive equation was established. And a statistical analysis was conducted on the contribution weighing of the two factors to the temperature change. By using the physical model of black-body radiation, the temperature change caused by the greenhouse effect and heat dissipation was calculated, and a comparison was made. In conclusion, though the greenhouse effect is the main reason for the global temperature rising, the heat dissipation from energy combustion also affects it, and thus should not be ignored.