高速铁路运价制定的系统动力学模型及仿真

System Dynamics Model for Pricing of High-Speed Railways

为合理地制订高速铁路运价,建立了高速铁路运价制定的系统动力学流程图.在此基础上,构建了模拟模型和模型的主要方程.在运价的制定过程中,可利用该模型进行模拟和控制系统参数,并可比较充分地反映决策研究人员的意见,具有较好的可控性和灵活性.以京沪高速铁路运价的制定为例进行了仿真模拟.模拟结果表明,运价的发展趋势以及它对运输总收入、运输利润的影响与构建的系统动力学因果关系是一致的,说明基于系统动力学的高速铁路运价测算模拟模型是有效的.

An SD （ system dynamics） flow chart for rational pricing of high-speed railways was drawn. Based on the flow chart, a simulation model and the corresponding equations were presented. The SD model can be used for simulation during the pricing process. The ideas of price policy makers can be reflected in the SD model, and the parameters in the model can be controlled as necessary, so that it has excellent controllability and flexibility. The pricing of Jing-Hu （Beijing-Shanghai） high-speed railway was taken as example of simulation. The simulation result shows that the variation of prices and its influences on gross transport earnings and profits are accordant with the system dynamic consequences, which indicates that the proposed model is feasible.