新股上市首日开盘价预测方法的改进与启示

The Forecasting Method of New Stock's Open Price: Improvements and Revelations

本文分析了现有新股开盘价预测方法存在的缺陷,简要介绍了启发式决策及其应用价值。启发式是凭借经验的解题方法,是一种思考上的捷径,也称之为经验法则或拇指法则。如果在引入变量时考虑投资者决策的启发式心理因素,以还原投资者形成价格判断的真实决策过程,便可以提高新股开盘价预测的精度。运用实际样本对新股开盘价预测方法进行改进,改进的指导思想是考虑投资者的启发式判断心理。主要改进之处有两点,一是对自变量进入预测模型的方式进行改进;二是找出合适的样本容量的大小。改进之后的预测方法使得预测误差减少了2／3。文章最后论述了新改进的预测方法对实证研究的启示意义。

Firstly, we review existing forecast methods of new stock＇s open price. Secondly, we introduce heuristic decision rule and its applied value.Heuristic decision rule is also called rules of thumb which can reduce complex tasks to simple judgmental processes. If we add the investors＇ psychological considerations into variables, we will greatly increase the precision of stock price forecasting. Thirdly, we introduce a new method for the improvement of input variable and sample capacity. The new method will reduce two thirds of the forecasting error. Lasdy, conclusions and its revelations are presented.