基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型初探

RESEARCH ON TAX PREDICTION ERROR CORRECTION MODEL BASED ON COINTEGRATION THEORY

首先运用单位根检验方法验证了税收收入与GDP的非平稳性,进而通过协整检验证明二者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,最后建立了基于协整理论的税收预测误差修正模型.检验证明,该模型的解释效果和预测精度都较好,可以满足实际工作的需要.

First, the nonstationary of the revenue and the GDP are testified by using the Unit Root Test. Then a long - term and stationary relation is proved to exist between revenue and GDP. Finally, a kind of error correction model on taxation forecasting has been established based on the theory of cointegration. This forecasting model is proved to be effective and accurate, and meets the demands in practice.