油井套管寿命的灰色预测

Predicting the Failure Life of Casingsby Means of Grey Model GM (1, 1)

基于现场得到的油并套管大量统计数据，应用灰色理论中的ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对油并套管寿命进行预测。实例计算与对比表明，灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型对油井套管的寿命预测具有较好的适用性。

n the basis of the statistical data of casing damages happened in oil fields, the grey model GM (1,1) of grey system theory is applied to predict the failure life of casings.Prediction principle and method are proposed.The results and comparison calculated indicate that the failure life of casings can be obtained by using the method.