可修复系统故障时刻的估计

ESTIMATION OF FAILURE HOUR FOR A REPAIRABLE SYSTEM

分析研究了可修复系统故障时刻可用威布尔过程描述的情况下，进行系统后续故障时刻估评的几种方法。同时，还分析了在未假定可修复系统随机过程模型的情况下，运用灰色预测模型进行系统故障时刻估计的方法。通过对抽油机系统实际故障时刻的分析，对几种方法的精度进行了讨论。认为运用灰色预测模型来估计可修复系统的故障时刻，不必假定系统的随机过程模型。且估计精度较高，是１种有效方法。

Some methods of estimation of future failure hour for a repairable system which can be described by Weibull process are studied. They are analyzed by means of grey forecasting model on condition that its stochastic process model has not been assumed.Through the analysis of the practical failure hour for sucker-rod pumping system,the estimation procision by different methods mentioned above is discussed.It is not necessary to assume the concrete stochastic process model for a repairable system when we estimate the failure hour by means of the grey forecasting model.It is an effective method for estimating failure hour for a repatirable system.