灰色理论在中长期负荷预测中的应用

Application of the Grey Theory in Mid-long Term's Load Forecasting

负荷预测是电力系统规划和运行研究的重要内容,属于战略预测,是保证电力系统可靠供电和经济运行的前提。通过对灰色理论预测方法建模机理及其改进方法的研究,提出了改进模型。利用实例将改进模型与普通GM(l,l)模型进行比较,证明改进模型具有比普通GM(l,l)模型误差小、精度高的优点。

The load forecasting＇, which is an important content of the study on power system＇s planning and running, belongs to the strategic forecasting and is a precondition for the reliable power supply and economic operation of the power system. Through the study on the modeling mechanism of grey theory＇s forecasting method,this paper puts forward the improved model, and by using the actual examples, compares the improved model with the common GM （1,1） model, which shows that the improved model has the advantages of smaller error and higher precision.