摘要
在具有境外引水的复杂水资源系统中,建立水资源丰枯定性预警,对降低供水系统联合供水成本和提高供水可靠性具有重要意义。利用灰色理论中灾变预测的原理,以深圳市典型水库年降雨量为预测因子,建立了GM(1,1)模型,并对75%保证率的年降雨量P75进行灾变分析。从模型模拟结果分析了灰色系统在水资源实时预警应用中的局限性。
An early warning system is established for complex water resources system with imported water, which is important to reduce the costs and enhance the credibility of combined water supply. Based on theory of calamity forecasting in grey system, the GM（ 1,1 ） forecast model was established with annual precipitation in a typical reservoir in Shenzhen City taken as a prediction index. It was applied to the calamity forecasting of annual precipitation of 75 % assurance factor. The limitations of discussed according to the simulation grey system in the application of real-time early warning of water resources are results.
出处
《水资源保护》
CAS
北大核心
2006年第2期39-41,共3页
Water Resources Protection
关键词
灰色系统
枯水预测
灾变预测
水资源
grey system
low flow prediction
calamity forecasting
water resources
