基于非线性动力学的滑坡位移预测

Prediction of Displacement in Landslide based on Nonlinear Dynamics

利用非线性动力学的宏观研究方法对清江库岸茅坪滑坡的位移时间序列进行了分析,发现滑坡系统在演变过程中存在混沌。在此基础上,介绍了一种混沌的平均零阶局域预测法,对滑坡位移进行了预测计算,第1个月的相对误差仅为0.66%,并且前3个月的相对误差都控制在5%以内,初步计算结果令人满意。

The time series of displacement monitoring data obtained in Maoping landslide of Qingiiang are analyzed by using macroscopic study of nonlinear dynamics method. Then the mean zero-order local-region algorithm is proposed and applied in predicting displacement time series. The calculated results show that the relative error of the first month is only 0.66 %, and that of previous three months may be controlled to be within 5 %, the preliminary result is satisfactory.