江苏省能够实现“十一五”规划能耗目标吗:一项实证研究

Can We Achieve the Low Energy Consumption Aim in the 11th Five-Year Plan of Jiangsu Province?——An Empirical Test

本文在对江苏省能耗产值比分析的基础上,提出了能耗产值比趋缓的统计假说,为检验该假说的可靠性,本文利用单位GDP能耗的制造效应和产业结构调整效应这一概念框架,并结合江苏省“九五”和“十五”时期基于不同产业的能源消费统计数据,对影响江苏省单位GDP能耗降低的主要因素进行了实证研究,本文的结论是产业结构的调整效应是影响江苏省单位GDP能耗降低的主要因素,证据表明这一因素在江苏省“十一五”规划期间仍将继续发挥重要作用。江苏省“十一五”规划能耗目标是可以实现的。

Basing on the analysis of the ratio of energy consumption and production value of Jiangsu province, we give a hypothesis that this ratio is decreasing and slowing in this article. We use the product effect of energy consumption per GDP, the concept of adjustment effect of the industrial structure and the statistical data about energy consumption from different industries of 9th Five-Year Plan and the 10th Five-Year Plan to do the empirical test, and then we conclude that adjustment effect of the industrial structure is the main reason which makes the energy consumption per GDP decreasing and slowing. The evidence shows that its effect will continue in the period of the 11 th Five-Year Plan of Jiangsu province, and the low energy consumption aim can be achieved.