摘要
本文在新古典经济学的理论基础上建立了1995至2004年间上海商品住宅价格的计量经济模型。模型显示,在样本期间上海商品住宅价格的诸项决定因素中,经济增长速度的加快和实际利率的降低并不像人们通常认为的那样,是最主要的影响因素。拉动住宅价格上升的关键在于居民累计可支配收入的提高带来的有效需求的扩张,以及住宅供给结构中中高档物业比重的上升导致的市场价格区间的整体上移。
In this paper, an econometric model on prices of Shanghai commercial residence houses over the last ten years is adopted, based on new classical economic theory. The model illustrates that among all the driving forces of the price, the increase of economic growth and the actual interest rate are not as significant as supposed. Instead, it is the rise of people＇s accumulated disposable income and the upgrade of supply mix towards mid-and-high-end market that pull the price up.
出处
《科学．经济．社会》
CSSCI
2006年第1期26-29,共4页
Science Economy Society
关键词
商品住宅价格
累计可支配收入
经济增长
多元线性回归
price of commercial residence houses, accumulated disposable income, economic growth, multiple linear regression
