图们江流域气温的低频变化特征分析

Analysis of the Low-Frequency Variability of Air Temperature in the Tumen River Basin

用奇异谱（SSA）结合Mann-Kendall法分析了图们江流域近50a气温的低频变化特征。结果表明，图们江流域的气温有明显的年际周期振荡和上升的长期趋势变化及突变，年际振荡周期主要是8a、准3～4a和准2a。3～4a的周期振荡主要与ENSO有关，且其变化超前ENSO的年际变化；而准2a振荡（QBO）则主要与印度洋海洋一季风系统的低频振荡和东亚大槽的强度变化有关，并且都表现为最大滞后相关关系。气候突变发生在1972年，1972年以后年平均气温距平值由1972年以前的-0．36℃上升为0．22℃。1972年以前呈波动下降趋势，1972年以后呈上升趋势，但1953～2002年总体上表现为上升趋势。

The low frequency oscillation of the Tumen River basin air temperature over the past 50 （1953- 2002） years was studied with SSA and Mann Kendall methods. The results show that the air temperature in the Tumen river basin has several significant interannual oscillation periods, namely 8a period, 3-4a period and quasi-biennial oscillation （QBO）. The 3-4a oscillation is mainly associated with ENSO and always leads the variation of ENSO interannual variability signal. QBO is related to the variation of the Indian Ocean-monsoon system and the East Asian trough, which is always shown as a maximum lag correlation. There still exists a long-term tendency and an obvious abrupt climate change that occurred in 1972 in the time series of the Tumen River basin air temperature. After 1972, the anomalous annual mean temperature rose from - 0.36T2 before its abrupt change to 0.22℃. The temperature fell before 1972 and rose remarkably after 1972, but the total trend shows an upward tendency from 1953 to 2002.