基于SD的江苏省城市化与生态环境耦合发展情景分析

Scenarios Simulation of Urbanization and Ecological Environment Coupling in Jiangsu Province by System Dynamic Model

根据城市化与生态环境耦合内涵,在ISM和SD方法的支持下,建立了江苏省城市化与生态环境系统动力学模型,并选取五种典型的耦合发展模式进行情景模拟.分析表明:①在不同的模式下,该省城市化与生态环境耦合的结果和情景存在较大差异,五种耦合发展模式都有其显著的比较优势,同时也存在明显的发展缺陷;②根据该省的发展特点和区域发展差异并结合城市化发展一般规律,分阶段和分地域的推进人口城市化发展模式和社会城市化发展模式,可以实现该省人口、经济、城市化和生态环境协调发展的目的.

According to the connotation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling, the system dynamic model of Jiangsu,s urbanization and eco-environment coupling has been designed by means of ISM and SD method. Based on Jiangsu, s serial statistical data from 1990 to 2003, the five scenarios of coupling models during 2000 - 2015 have been simulated. The results show that： Firstly, there exist significantly differences among the five development models, which show both comparative advantages and drawbacks. Secondly 1 according to the characteristics and regional disparities of Jiangsu development and the general rule of world urbanization, it is revealed that only when either population urbanization model or society urbanization model to be adopted correspondingly can the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and coo-environment be realized.