一种产量预测新方法的研究及探讨

Study of a New Output Prediction Method

油田产量预测在油田长远开发规划中起着至关重要的作用。以Arps递减曲线及历年新井产量组成为基础,首次建立了产量预测新模型——无因次产量组成递减率法作为产量预测的新方法,即以各年老井、新井无因次产量递减率分别作为老井、新井规划产量递减率的依据,进而达到预测老井及新井产量的目的。为验证该方法的科学合理性,将其应用于辽河油区某油田“十一五”规划中,并与典型的常规预测方法对比分析,得到了较为满意的结果。

The oilfield output prediction is accompanied by the whole course of the oilfield development, especially playing an essential role in the average and long term development of oilfield. For this reason, based on the Arps decreasing curve and output of the new wells over the years, we have set up the new model of rate prediction for the first time——dimensionless output composition lapse-rate law. The law is that each old well and new well dimensionless output lapse-rate is token separately as the old wells’ and the new wells’output plan lapse-rate basis, then achieving the goal of predicting output of the old wells and new wells. In order to verify the scientific nature and feasibility of the method, we apply it to some oil fields’the eleventh five-year-development-plan’ of Liaohe oilfield, and compare the method with the typical routine, then receiving the comparatively satisfactory results. This method is simple, practical. And that has added a method for the output prediction.