上游水库兴建后下游水库洪水预报系统的改进研究

Improvement Study on the Downstream Reservoir Flood Forecast System after Upriver Reservoir Building

针对流域梯级开发中上游水库的兴建对下游水库的来水状况等产生改变的问题,提出下游水库的洪水预报模式应相应由全流域的产汇流转变为“区间汇流+库区产汇流”的模式。结合凤滩水库在上游水库建成后洪水预报出现的问题,对其洪水预报系统进行了改进研究,实际应用情况表明改进取得了显著的效果。

Aiming at the problem that reservoir influx situation was changed by the construction of upriver reservoir in the valley cascade development, this paper presents that the flood forecast mode should be changed from runoff yield and conflux of the entire valley to an inter-zone conflux plus runoff yield and conflux of the reservoir area. Through analysis of the dysfunction causes of flood forecast system of Fengtan Reservoir after the upriver reservoir building, this paper makes improvement study on the downstream reservoir flood forecast system. Remarkable effect is demonstrated by the practical application.