近40a石河子地区气候暖湿化特征分析

Analysis on the Climate Change towards Warming-wetting Trend in Shihezi Region in Recent 40 Years

分析了40a气温、降水及干旱指数的变化特征，结果表明：（1）近40a石河子地区平均温度以0．3℃／10a趋势上升，和全疆变化一致；该地区年、冬季、夏季气温总体呈上升趋势，20世纪60—70年代年、冬季、夏季气温呈降低的趋势，80—90年代气温呈增加趋势，80年代冬季升温比夏季升温明显，而90年代夏季升温比冬季明显。（2）降水总体趋势上升，降水增长率为12．5mm／10a．90年代平均降水比30a均值偏多20．8％。（3）年平均干旱指数总体呈下降趋势，但趋势不明显，其减少率为-0．3／10a。（4）行河子地区的温度、降水及干旱指数用Mann-kendall方法检验分别在不同年份发生了不同程度的突变。结果指出，石河子地区气候正在趋于暖、湿化，这对于本区绿洲的发展具有有利的一面。

The changing characteristics of temperature, rainfall and aridity index in recent 40 years in Shihezi region were analyzed in this paper. The results show： （1） The changing trend of temperature there is on the increase of 0. 3℃/10 a, which is consistent with that in the whole region of Xinjiang; the annual, winter and summer mean temperatures descended from 1960s to 1970s, ascended from 1980s to 1990s, and rose more obviously in winter than that in summer in 1980s,but just the reverse in 1990s. （2）The rainfall increased generally, and the increasing rate is 12.5 mm/10 a, the mean precipitation in 1990s is 20.8% more than that in the past ：30 years. （3）The annual mean aridity index descended generally, but the trend was not obvious, the descending rate is -0. 3/10 a. （4） There were some abrupt changes with different degree in temperature, rainfall and aridity index in different years tested by Mann - Kendall means, all these showed that climate in Shihezi region was becoming warm and wet, and this is in faw,r of oasis development there.