经济增长、技术进步与人民币实际汇率的长期趋势

Economy Growth,Technology Advancement and The Long-Term Trend of RMB's Real Exchange Rate

文章在G regorio和W olf(1994)模型的基础上,构建了一个比较静态的局部均衡模型。重点考察了生产率是否是影响人民币实际汇率变动的主要因素,然后比较了供给因素和需求因素对三个地区实际汇率变动的不同影响。研究表明人民币中确实存在Balassa-Samuelson效应,东部地区汇率的长期趋势的主要决定因素是生产率,而中西部的汇率主要决定于需求因素。

This paper constructs a comparatively static partial balanced model on the basis of Gregorio ＆ Wolf＇s model, investigates whether productivity is the main factor affecting the change of RMB＇s real exchange rate, and compares different influences of supply factor and demand factor on real exchange rate in three areas. The research indicates that there is Balassa -Samuelson effect in RMB, and that productivity is the main decisive factor affecting the long - term trend of exchange rate in eastern area, while the exchange rate in mid- west depends on demand factor.