信息、预期与动态均衡——对现代宏观经济学的一项研究

Information,Forecasting and Dynamic Equilibrium:Studies on Macroeconomics

本文采用动态一般均衡的分析框架讨论现代宏观经济学及中国经济在发展中存在的一些问题。在70年的时间里,宏观经济学通过对信息、预期与市场均衡之间关系的把握,逐步形成了深刻揭示宏观经济特性的动态一般均衡框架,各种流派的理论均可以归结为在信息不完备条件下宏观经济如何实现动态一般均衡的理论,宏观经济学业已成为关于宏观经济长期动态均衡的理论。

For a long time, economists have been arguing which is more effective, market mechanism or government intervene, although different schools still gives different explain under different paradigm in macroeconomics, and offers different policies to the public, the discussion among economists about the difference of market mechanism in short term or medium and long term is very useful. Macroeconomics is achieving benchmark progress on researching the theory of Dynamic General Equilibrium which is not clear enough and remains questionable. We now endeavour to explain how to deeply understand an economy of dynamic general equilibrium in macroeconomics, and try to describe an economy how to follow, to depart and recover its dynamic general equilibrium. We can conclude that every school of macroeconomics has been transformed to a specific theory on the departure of an economy from its dynamic general equilibrium with different information asymmetry.