中国年最大致洪暴雨落区研究

Study on flood-causing annual maximum storm over China

分析了1900-1999年逐年全国最大致洪暴雨落区的区域分布和年际间迁移轨迹。结果表明:中国年最大致洪暴雨落区的年际间迁移轨迹是无序的;年最大致洪暴雨可以随机地出现在中国(主要在90°E以东地区)任何地区;华中和华东地区是出现年最大致洪暴雨频次最高的地区。也分析了1470-1899年逐年的年最大洪涝中心的区域分布和年际间迁移轨迹,其结果支持20世纪中国年最大致洪暴雨落区分布和年际间迁移轨迹分析所得出的认识。上述事实表明,中国7大江河中的任何一条,每年都可能出现全国最大的暴雨洪水,而且无法预见其在年际间迁移的方向与落区。因此,中国不得不立足于此客观事实确立全国防洪战略。

The regional distribution and the moving trajectory of the flood-causing annual maximum storm （FCAMS） in China during the 20 century are analyzed. The result shows that the whole moving trajectory is in a jumble. The FCAMS may randomly appear in any place over the country, but in the regions in the Central China and the East China the FCAMS appeared with higher frequency than other regions. The regional distribution and the moving trajectory of flood-water logging centre during the 1470 - 1899 period are analyzed too. The result strfficiently supports the understanding gained from the analyses of the FCAMS of the 20 century. So China has to establish Its flood prevention strategy based on the important facs mentioned above.