公路网规划环境影响评价中的不确定性分析

Analysis on Uncertainty of Environment Impact Assessment for Highway Network Plan

公路网规划环境影响评价中的不确定主要来自公路网规划方案的不确定和环境信息的不确定,具有普遍性、传递性、累积性和可降低性,对决策者存在着较大的干扰,但是可以通过使用基于情景分析的预测方法、广泛开展公众参与以及通过多方协作的方式开展环境影响评价工作等方法来降低。

The uncertainty in environment evaluation of highway network layout is mainly from the uncertainty of highway network and environment information. This uncertainty is of common, transferring, accumulation and reducable. It often disturbs greatly to decision makers, which can be reduced by developing the environment evaluation by forecast methods based on scenario analysis, pubic participation and the cooperation with others, and so on.