摘要
灰色GM(1,1)模型是一种较有效的负荷预测模型,然而由于电力负荷具有多样性,当负荷增长曲线不是G型时,其预测误差较大,精度不能满足要求,在实际应用中具有一定的局限性。对灰色GM(1,1)模型进行必要的改进,通过实例分析,利用等维新息递推模型、组合灰色模型进行负荷预测,可大大提高预测精度。
The grey model （GM （ 1,1 ）） is a kind of effective mathod for electric power load forecasting. Because of the variety of power load.the forecasting error is very big when the increasing load curve is not the shape of alphabet G. The low precision can not satisfy the requirment and has some limit, It＇s necessary to improve the model, By analyzing an actual example we can see that this method can improve the precision through using these models to forecast load.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
北大核心
2006年第2期18-19,25,共3页
Power Demand Side Management
关键词
负荷预测
灰色模型
等维新息递推
组合灰色模型
load forecasting
grey model
recurrence of new information with equal dimension
combined grey model
