菲利普斯曲线之中国验证——基于1985-2004年的数据分析

An Empirical Study about Phillips Curve in China

本文在介绍分析菲利普斯曲线三种形态及其政策含义的基础上,使用中国的相关数据对其进行验证。本文对我国菲利普斯曲线的三种形态分别进行绘制和分析。在简要回顾对曲线走势有重要影响的宏观经济政策之后,提出当前应当逐渐由扩张性财政政策向中性的财政政策转变。

This paper does an empirical study to Phillips curve with data of China based on introduction and analysis of their shapes and policy significance of the curve. We draw and analyze designs of China Phillips curve＇ s three formations. We think that transition ought to start from expansionary fiscal policy to Neutral fiscal policy, after brief review to some macro-economic policy which had im- portant influence on the curves.