摘要
本文简要介绍了时间序列分析的数学模型和建模途径,对实际月降雨侵蚀力指数序列进行了平稳性、正态性和周期性检验,在样本相关函数和偏自相关函数计算的基础上,确定出了模型的形式和阶次,并估计出了模型参数值。对所得到的月降雨侵蚀力指数预报方程,用实际值进行了预报检验,其结果表明所建立的预报模型具有较高的精度。
This paper outlines the mathematical model of time series analysis and the method of model construction.The form of the model is ARIMA ( 1,1,0) An analytical model is proposed to predict the monthly rainfall erosivity index.The author conducted a model test which indicated that the analytical model is highly satisfactory.
出处
《北京林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第2期55-62,共8页
Journal of Beijing Forestry University
关键词
降雨侵蚀力
指数
时间序列分析
rainfall erosivity index,time series analysis,autocorrelation function,partial correlation function
