摘要
本文以中国1978-2003年的财政预算内收支数据为样本,分析财政预算内收入、预算内支出、经济增长等变量的长期稳定性和它们之间的均衡关系,发现,虽然1998-2003年的积极财政政策加剧了数据的波动性,但预算内收入与其子项目之间、预算内支出与其分项目之间、预算内收支与经济增长之间均存在长期稳定的均衡关系,表明预算内收入结构(即预算内收入和其组成子项的比例关系)和预算内支出结构具有稳定性,财政预算内收支活动稳定而又积极地促进了经济增长。
This paper chooses the sample data of China' s fiscal budgetary revenue and expenditure from 1978 to 2003, and analyses the long-term stability and equilibrium of the series of budgetary revenue, budgetary expenditure, economic growth and etc. The conclusion is that the long-term stable equilibrium relationship exists among them with China's positive fiscal policy from 1998 to 2003. This means that the structure of budgetary revenue ( i. e. the proportion of budgetary revenue and its components) and the structure of budgetary expenditure are stable, the fiscal budgetary activity pushes the economic growth stably and positively.
出处
《财贸研究》
北大核心
2006年第2期85-91,共7页
Finance and Trade Research
关键词
预算内收入
预算内支出
序列平稳
均衡
协整
budgetary revenue
budgetary expenditure
the stability of series
equilibrium
cointegration