中国预算内收支长期稳定性和均衡性实证分析——基于1978-2003年的样本

Empirical Analysis of the LongTerm Stability and Equilibrium of China′s Government Budgetary Revenue and Expenditure ——Based on the Sample in 1978-2003

本文以中国1978-2003年的财政预算内收支数据为样本,分析财政预算内收入、预算内支出、经济增长等变量的长期稳定性和它们之间的均衡关系,发现,虽然1998-2003年的积极财政政策加剧了数据的波动性,但预算内收入与其子项目之间、预算内支出与其分项目之间、预算内收支与经济增长之间均存在长期稳定的均衡关系,表明预算内收入结构(即预算内收入和其组成子项的比例关系)和预算内支出结构具有稳定性,财政预算内收支活动稳定而又积极地促进了经济增长。

This paper chooses the sample data of China＇ s fiscal budgetary revenue and expenditure from 1978 to 2003, and analyses the long-term stability and equilibrium of the series of budgetary revenue, budgetary expenditure, economic growth and etc. The conclusion is that the long-term stable equilibrium relationship exists among them with China＇s positive fiscal policy from 1998 to 2003. This means that the structure of budgetary revenue （ i. e. the proportion of budgetary revenue and its components） and the structure of budgetary expenditure are stable, the fiscal budgetary activity pushes the economic growth stably and positively.