水晶球软件及其在数学建模中的应用

Crystal Ball and its Application in Mathematical Modeling

加载在微软电子表格软件上的水晶球软件是一个易于使用的软件，它包括蒙特卡洛模拟（水晶球）、时间序列预测（水晶球预言家）、最优选择（优化查询）和用来构造定制界面和程序的开发工具箱。模拟方法建模和用计算机模拟检验数学模型的正确性正日益流行。加载了水晶球软件的电子表格可以方便地进行蒙特卡洛模拟，从而为计算机模拟的教学和应用提供了很好的手段。本文介绍了水晶球软件的主要功能和两个应用实例。

Crystal Ball is a suite of easy-to-use Microsoft Excel add-in software. The suite includes analysis tools for Monte Carlo simulation （Crystal Ball）, time-series forecasting （CB Predictor）, and optimization （OptQuest） as well as developer kits for building custom interfaces and processes. Simulation modeling and using computer simulation to verify the mathematical model is becoming more and more popular. Spreadsheet added with Crystal Ball can do Monte Carlo simulation easily, so that it provides a good tool for mathematical modeling teaching and application. In this paper, we introduce the Crystal Ball＇s main functions through two examples.