黄淮地区汛期降水预测的一种前兆信号

Provious Signal of Summer Precipitation in Huanghuai Region

为探讨黄淮地区汛期降水预测的物理因子,应用奇异值分解(SVD)技术研究了冬季北太平洋地区上空100hPa高度场与黄淮地区汛期降水场的时空结构及相互关系。结果表明其SVD分解的第一模态有较高的相关,一般1月份40~60°N,160°E^160°W的北太平洋地区上空100hPa高度场偏低(高)时,则黄淮地区汛期降水偏少(偏多),可作为预测黄淮地区汛期降水的一种前兆信号。

The variation of summer precipitation over Huanghuai region is very coordinate. Using SVD technique, the relationship between 100hPa geopotential height over the north Pacific and summer precipitation in the Huanghuai region is studied. The results show that the first mode derived from SVD indicates the key coupled characteristics of the geopotential height and the precipitation field with closely time-space correlation. In the severe summer drought/flood years, the height departure of 100hPa over the north Pacific （40°60°N, 160° E°160°W） is remarkably positive/negative. It is the signal of prediction of summer precipitation in the Huanghuai region.