基于单体对象的城市区域火灾风险评价方法研究

On urban fire risk assessment method based on single target

从分析城市区域内单体对象自身的致灾因素及其制约灭火抢险救援力量发挥的环节入手,基于指数法和层次分析法建立了单体对象火灾风险评价指标体系。以单体对象火灾风险向量为基础,基于线性加权模型构建了一种新的区域火灾风险评价计算模型,并以树形结构表征了区域火灾风险评价结构。试点地区实例表明,该方法能够有效地评价城市区域火灾风险。

This paper aims to introduce the author＇ s research on the fire risk assessment method regardless of the effect of fire fighting power. The main purpose is to ascertain the important part a city should play. The suggested method can also be used to discriminate the unit under the fire risk through comparison to the real risk to a single target. Therefore the assessment results can be used to evaluate the ability of a city＇ s fire-withstanding power and that of the firefighting departments＇ fire-stamping strength. Based on the above study and reference ideas in the field, the fire risk index system has been constructed by the Index Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process starting with the analysis of the fire-occurring factors and fire-rescue restriction of urban single targets. The complexity of the architectural construction in the urban areas has been taken into full consideration. The human and fire load index are the main factors that reflect the fire degree in the single target system, the construction form and water source also serve as the main factors restricting the strength of fire-attacking. Surrounding environment reflects the fire risk coupling each other, and so does the fire fighting device and administration of the fire prevention ＆ control reflect the ability of rescuing actions themselves. The fire risk faced by the single targets is also used to represent the risk vectors consisting of human risk and property risk. Thus it can be said that the fire risks to a different single target are quantitatively compared with each other and the total urban fire risks to the single target can easily be worked out. Based on the single target fire risk vectors and the linear weighted models, a new and efficient evaluation model with the tree-like structure has been established for calculating the urban fire risk levels. When the model was successfully applied to some experimental regions, the results indicate that it proves to be reasonable for the urban fire risk assessments.