防洪预报调度方式下水库下游防洪风险分析——以葠窝水库为例

Risk analysis on downstream of a reservoir when the flood control method is used: a case of Shenwo Reservoir

水库实施的防洪预报调度方式是解决我国防洪和兴利之间矛盾的一条有效途径,其对水库上下游的防洪风险率的大小是决定其能否实施的关键。目前对此缺少一种定量计算方法。本文在分析防洪预报调度方式风险指标的前提下,根据水库洪水径流深与产流预报误差的分布规律,采用数值分析方法计算水库实施防洪预报调度方式时,相对于常规调度方式,产流预报误差对水库下游防洪风险率,并以实例论述了具体分析思路和计算过程。

The present article aims to introduce the authors＇ research on the method of flood control forecast operation a reservoir can actualize in a flood season. Though it is an effectual measure to resolve the discrepancy between the flood control and the water resource utilization, the method for a reservoir to actualize the flood control forecast operation method decides whether it can be actualized as compared to the conventional operation method. So far, there does not exist effective quantitative methods to calculate the above risk. Having analyzed the risk factors of the flood control operation, a kind of numerical simulation has been put forward to calculate such risks based on the distribution of flood runoff of a reservoir and the forecast errors of the runoff. Thus, the risk to the downstream of a reservoir caused by the forecast errors can be calculated quantitatively and the present article has done such practical flood control forecasts. Taking Shenwo Reservoir for example, the authors have introduced the ideas and calculation methods in a detailed way. The calculation results of Shenwo Reservoir show that the risk is tolerable or acceptable with Shenwo Reservoir in contrast to the conventional operation forecast method.