摘要
简析了冬小麦黄矮病流行的预报因子及其对病害发生的显著影响、黄矮病流行趋势预测的研究动态,并采用多元回归分析法建立了冬小麦黄矮病预测模型(Y=-1.0944-0.0322X1+0.2604X2+0.1049X3-0.0062X4+0.0382X5),经回归检验其历史拟合率高达87.5%。
The forecast factors of BYDV popularity and their prominent effect on the disease are analyzed and the study developments of forecast on current BYDV are summarized. The forecast model of BYDV-Y = - 1.0944 - 0.0322X1 ＋ 0.2604X2 ＋ 0. 1049X3 -0.0062X4 ＋ 0.0382X5 is constituted using the regressive analysis method. The model＇s ratio according with the history equal 87.5 % by the regressive test.
出处
《中国生态农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
2006年第2期147-149,共3页
Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture
基金
山西省科技厅科技攻关项目(002018)资助
关键词
冬小麦
黄矮病
预报因子
预测模型
Winter wheat, BYDV, Forecast factor, Forecast model
