GIS支持的绿色食品产地环境质量预警系统研究——以黑龙江省庆安县国家级生态农业示范区为例

The early warning system of environmental quality in production base of green food supported by GIS—A case study from the national ecological agriculture demonstration area in Qing'an County,Heilongjiang Province.

采用马尔可夫链模型预测未来5年环境质量状态发生概率,对国家级生态农业示范区庆安县绿色食品产地进行环境质量负向演化和恶化速度预警分析结果表明,该研究区内巨宝村、东阳村和泥河农场环境质量发出负向演化预警信号,而金星村、红星村、建业村、建民村、双利村和东阳村环境质量恶化速度最快。并提出排警对策。

Taking the production base of green food, the national ecological agriculture demonstration area in Qing＇ an County as an example, this paper forecasts the occurring probability of environmental quality status in the coming five years and analyzes the early warning of environmental quality negative evolution and the early warning of aggravation speed by adopting the Markov chain model, The results show that the early warning signal of negative evolution has been given by the environmental quality in jubao Village, Dongyang Village and Nihe Farm located in the studied area. And the environ- mental quality aggravation speed is the fastest in Jinxing Village, Hongxing Village,Jianye Village,Jianmin Village, Shuangli Village and Dongyang Village. Finally, the solving countermeasures are put forward.