从东北玉米冷害预测模型展望农业气象灾害预测技术的发展

Advance in agrometeorological disasters' prediction as a case study on prediction models of cold injury in Northeast China

以东北玉米冷害预测为例,介绍了近年发展的基于热量指数预测的热量年型统计预测模型和基于玉米生长模式的机理性预测模型,比较了两类模型在预报原理、预报对象、预报时效及准确率等方面的各自差别和利弊,探讨了两类模型取长补短优势互补的可能方法,展望了农业气象灾害预测预警技术发展的若干问题。

As a case study, two prediction models of cold injury in Northeast China were introduced, including statistical prediction model of heat index for maize and mechanism prediction model based on maize growth simulation model developed recently. The differences in principle and objects of prediction, valid time of prediction as well as prediction accuracy for the two models were pointed out. The possible approaches to combine and make their priorities were discussed. Finally, some comments about development of agrometcorological disasters＇ prediction were presented.