黑河中游水资源开发利用的阶段潜力研究

Stage Potential of Development and Utilization for Water Resources in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River

建立水资源开发利用阶段潜力的评价指标体系,运用模糊综合评判的方法对黑河中游地区水资源开发利用的阶段潜力进行了分析评价。结果表明:黑河中游地区水资源开发利用已处于中级阶段V2,水资源开发利用仍保持上升势头,潜力综合评分值较大,达到0.534 9,说明水资源的进一步开发利用仍有较大的潜力。其中以甘州区水资源开发利用潜力最大,山丹县最小。黑河中游水资源开发利用阶段潜力的综合评价,为该区水资源的可持续利用提供了科学依据和决策支持,因而具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Based on integrative analysis of background of the middle reaches of the Heihe River and presentation of relative conception of potential of development and utilization of the water resources, the paper processes analysis and evaluation about stage potential of development and utilization of the water resources in the middle reaches of the Heihe River by constructing evaluation index system and utilizing fuzzy synthetic judgment method. The results show that exploitation potential of water resources is situated in a transition phase and keep uptrend and the evaluated value is comparatively great（0. 5349）, which indicates great potential of water resources exploitation. The exploitation potential of Ganzhou region is the most in the middle reaches of the Heihe River, and Shandan County is the least. The evaluated result can provide a scientific reference and knowledge management for sustainable development of water resources in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. Therefore, the evaluation to stage potential of development and utilization of the water resources in the middle reaches of the Heihe River has a theoretical and realistic significance.