民工短缺:基于博弈策略模型的研究

Peasant Worker Shortage:Based on Game Strategy Model′s Analysis

以博弈论为分析工具,通过构建民工与雇主博弈的策略模型,阐释民工短缺现象产生的内在机理。在此基础上,结合现实情况,分析了货币性因素和非货币性因素对民工策略选择的双重影响。由于宏观政策调控,务农的比较效益上升,这使相当一部分民工觉得打工已“得不偿失”;而非货币性因素在新一代民工中所占的比重越来越大,一旦出现触发因素,它也是一种能够左右民工策略选择的力量。近年来民工出现的回流现象,正是市场机制按供求规律自动调整的结果。

The article chooses Game Theory as an analysis tool. We want to explain the internal peasant workers playing with employers. The article realistically analyses the double effects of monetary and non monetary factors when peasant workers select their strategies. Owing to the adjustment of macro - policies, the comparative income for farming has increased, leading many peasant workers to feel they get more kicks than halfpence if they choose urban manufacturing work. Increasingly, to the new generation of peasant workers, non monetary factors have become influential and, in conjunction with other factors, can affect peasant worders＇ choice of strategy. The law of supply and demand＇s natural regulation of the market mechanism has led peasant workers to return to the country for farming during recent years.