人民币均衡汇率理论的新视角及其意义

本文根据我国国情重新界定了内部均衡的内涵,指出应以经济持续增长的汇率条件替代国际收支平衡的汇率条件作为均衡汇率的标准。本文继而分析了汇率的杠杆属性,并将均衡汇率区分为“投资推动型”和“技术促进型”,这对于结合经济增长的阶段选择汇率政策具有积极的现实意义。

Based on the current situation, we define the concept of the internal equilibrium from a new perspective, pointing out that exchange rate equilibrium should be defined in terms of sustainability of economic growth, rather than balance of payments. Afterwards, we analyze the leverage of exchange rate, and then differentiate between investment-impelling equilibrium exchange rate and technology-promoting equilibrium exchange rate, which is conducive to selecting exchange rate policy according to the phase of economic growth.