二维河道瞬时排污的未确知水质模拟模型研究

Unascertained model of 2-dimensional river water quality simulation under sudden pollutant discharged

基于水质系统的未确知性,运用未确知理论将瞬时排污情形下河流水质模型参数定义为未确知数。在此基础上,建立未确知水质模拟模型。由该模型不仅能够得到排污口下游各控制点污染物浓度可能值分布形式,也可以得到各可能值区间相应的可信度分布,从而为河流水质规划管理和水污染控制提供丰富、有用的水质信息。实例研究表明,运用未确知理论研究瞬时排污情形下河流水质模拟预测问题,理论上是可行的、计算结果是可信的。

Based on the unascertained characteristic of river water quality system, the parameters of water model are defined as the unascertained numbers by using unascertained mathematics th unascertained model of water quality simulation is established. According to the model distribution interval values of pollutant concentration under sudden pollutant discharged quality eory. On this basis, an k proposed, not only the but also the respective corresponding faith degree can be obtained directly. It is shown that the calculated results obtained from the unascertained model are reliable and reasonable.