水库防洪分类预报调度设计方法研究

Study on reservoir flood operation design with classified forecasts

在分析水库防洪调度设计存在问题的基础上,针对典型过程代表性的不足,本文提出了水库防洪分类预报调度设计方法。通过成因分析和聚类分析,确定不同天气系统的典型代表过程。结合调度经验,调度设计人员通过分别调节不同天气系统成因的设计洪水过程,建立满意的水库防洪分类预报调度规则,用来更好地指导水库实时调度。随后以碧流河水库为例,详细阐述了水库防洪分类预报调度规则的确定过程,并给出了水库实时防洪预报调度的流程。

The existing problems in the design of reservoir flood operations is analyzed, then aiming at the insufficience of the typical flood, the method for reservoir flood operation with classified forecast is presented in this paper. With the integrating cause analysis, the typical floods of different weather systems are determined. The planners with their experience pertain to reservoir flood operations, regulate the design hydrographs of different weather systems and herewith establish satisfied flood operation rules with classified forecasts for better reservoir realtime operation. Taking the Biliuhe reservoir as an example, the determination process of satisfied flood operation mode is systematically illustrated in this paper.