我国国债对投资影响的绩效:回顾与反思——对积极财政政策下国债绩效的一个评价

The Performance of The Effect of Government Debt on Investment:Retrospection and Introspection

本文通过分析国债支出对投资需求的影响,可以看出:国债对投资需求的增长具有直接作用,效果是比较明显的,投资的增长也是拉动总需求增长的最强劲的动力;国债投资对启动民间投资也产生了积极的作用,使民间投资具有较快的增长速度,但民间投资的持续增长,体制、制度的创新是一个重要因素;就全社会投资来讲,在一些领域中还存在突出问题,主要表现在农业投资、黑色金属与有色金属冶炼及压延加工业投资、住宅业投资。

In this paper, through the analysis of the effect of government debt on investment, conclusions are drawn as follow： the effect of government debt on investment is direct and obvious; the increase of investment is the main force of driving AD increase; the government debt investment has positive effect on increasing private investment and makes private investment increase quickly. But the innovation of system is an important factor making private investment increase continuously; from all investments, there are some obvious problems, such as agriculture investment, iron investment and house investment.