人体舒适度指数在短期电力负荷预测中的应用

Short-Term Electric Load Forecast Using Human Body Amenity Indicator

针对地区电网负荷易受多种气象因素影响的特点,引入人体舒适度这一气象新概念,综合分析天气因素对用电负荷的影响,并在人工神经网络法短期电力负荷预测的输入单元中,以人体舒适度指数代替温度、风速、相对湿度。经长春电网实际数据预测计算,证明此方法与引入人体舒适度指数前相比,可减少输入单元的个数,提高负荷预测精度。

According to the influence of several kinds of weather factors on load, this paper introduces a new meteorological concept named human body amenity and then analyzes the effect of weather conditions on electric load. In place of temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, human body amenity indicator is chosen as the input of ANN. It is proved by simulation results that the replacement has achieved a good performance in decreasing the number of input as well as increasing forecasting accuracy.