吉林省生态足迹时间序列计算与分析

Calculation and Analysis of Time Sequence of Ecological Footprint in Jilin Province.

为了定量评价吉林省可持续发展程度的动态变化及其影响因素,计算了1994—2003年吉林省生态足迹时间序列,着重分析了该省生态足迹、生态盈亏和生态足迹强度的动态变化及其驱动机制。结果显示:吉林省生态足迹和生态承载力的人均水平和总量均呈增长趋势,自然资源供需结构渐趋多元化;自然资源供需的非均衡增长导致生态赤字的出现和持续增长,表明目前吉林省的发展模式是不可持续的;自然资源利用效益不断提高,但仍低于全国和东部地区的平均水平。最后,根据生态盈亏的影响因素提出了降低和消除生态赤字的措施。

To quantitatively evaluate dynamic variation of the sustainable development degree Of Jilin Province and its affecting factors,time sequence of ecological footprint （EF） of the province from 1994 to 2003 was calculated with focus on analyzing dynamic variations of the EF, ecological budget and EF intensity of the province and their driving mechanisms. Results show that from 1994 to 2003 ,the EF （ per capita） increased from 1. 594 to 2. 231 hm^2, and biocapacity （ per capita） from 1. 274 to 1. 308 hm^2 ,showing that the former rises faster than the latter. As a result,ecological deficit appeared and continued growing. The existence of ecological deficit reflects unsustainability of the development model of Jilin Province. Based on analysis of the causes of the ecological deficit, measures are advanced to reduce and eliminate the ecological deficit in Jilin Province.